Preliminary numbers from the State show that in 2007, divorce rates dropped to their lowest point in 40 years. That’s good news, and it only gets better when you dig a little deeper.
Nicholas Wolfinger is an Associate Professor at the University of Utah and author of several books on marriage and divorce, and he says that there is a problem with the divorce statistic itself.
According to Wolfinger, the divorce presents “a misleading picture” because they are based on the number of divorces per 1000 people; not number of divorces per 1000 married people. Since Utahans are more likely to be married, he says “the rate per 1,000 may appear higher because more people are at risk of divorce simply by virtue of being married.” So even now, when it’s at a 40 year low, Utah’s divorce rate still gives the impression the problem is bigger than it actually is.
Wolfinger suggest a more accurate way of comparing Utah to the rest of the nation would be the divorce rate per 1,000 married women. In the past this figure has shown Utah to be well below the national average, but unfortunately the statistic hasn’t been collected since 1996.
Another factor to consider. Wolfinger says “age at marriage is one of the strongest predictors of divorce. Study after study has shown that youthful couples are far more likely to end their marriages; conversely it has been suggested that the divorce rate in America has declines since 1979 precisely because couples are waiting longer to tie the knot.” But Utah breaks the mold.
In 2006, women in Utah married about 3.2 years earlier than the national average (only Idaho had a lower median age). This should make Utah’s marriages especially vulnerable, but for some reason, the opposite is true. Marriages in Utah are surprisingly stable.
Wolfinger thinks the influence of the LDS Church might deserve much of the credit. I would tend to agree, but I’m interested in hearing what the rest of you think.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Divorce in Utah Hits 40 Year Low
If you’re like me, you might not have realized that Utah is a great place to be married. For a long time I actually thought that the opposite was true.
I’d always been disheartened by the ubiquitous statement that “half of all marriage end in divorce,” and didn’t help to learn that according to state statistics, Utah’s divorce rate has been higher than the national average for nearly ever one of the last 68 years (since 1940, Utah beat the national average only in 1976 & 1998. We tied the nation in the 4 years from 1994-1997).
To me, that meant that Utah’s marriages were especially vulnerable. I was wrong.
First off, there’s good news from the statistics themselves. According to preliminary data I obtained from the Department of Vital Statistics, Utah’s divorce rate in 2007 reached its lowest point in 40 years at 3.5 divorces per thousand people (you’d need to go back to 1965 to get a lower rate).
It’s great news, but not once you study the numbers, it’s not exactly surprising. Overall, the divorce rate has been falling at a fairly steady rate since 1981 (It’s dropped 36% since that high point). It also mirrors the national trend.
No one is really sure why the rate is falling, but the simplest answer seems to be that in both Utah and across the nation, a lower percentage of people are getting married (Utah is down 23% since 1981, the U.S. is down at least 28%). Fewer marriages may lead to few divorces. But the simple explanation doesn’t come close to giving us the full picture, especially in Utah.
I’ll explain why in my next post.
I’d always been disheartened by the ubiquitous statement that “half of all marriage end in divorce,” and didn’t help to learn that according to state statistics, Utah’s divorce rate has been higher than the national average for nearly ever one of the last 68 years (since 1940, Utah beat the national average only in 1976 & 1998. We tied the nation in the 4 years from 1994-1997).
To me, that meant that Utah’s marriages were especially vulnerable. I was wrong.
First off, there’s good news from the statistics themselves. According to preliminary data I obtained from the Department of Vital Statistics, Utah’s divorce rate in 2007 reached its lowest point in 40 years at 3.5 divorces per thousand people (you’d need to go back to 1965 to get a lower rate).
It’s great news, but not once you study the numbers, it’s not exactly surprising. Overall, the divorce rate has been falling at a fairly steady rate since 1981 (It’s dropped 36% since that high point). It also mirrors the national trend.
No one is really sure why the rate is falling, but the simplest answer seems to be that in both Utah and across the nation, a lower percentage of people are getting married (Utah is down 23% since 1981, the U.S. is down at least 28%). Fewer marriages may lead to few divorces. But the simple explanation doesn’t come close to giving us the full picture, especially in Utah.
I’ll explain why in my next post.
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